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Sweeter and lighter than I was expecting: KimMiE"'s review of If Cats Disappeared from the World
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Heather Rae El Moussa Knows Critics Don’t Get How She And Christina Haack Get Along So Great (On TV
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Tyler Perry’s Latest Madea Movie Is Crushing On Netflix, And I’m Loving His Sweet Message To The Fan
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The Republican Party wants the United States to be much less prepared for weather-related disasters

There isn’t a trace of hyperbole in that statement — it’s just the basic facts of the matter [free link]:
In an effort to shrink the federal government, President Trump and congressional Republicans have taken steps that are diluting the country’s ability to anticipate, prepare for and respond to catastrophic flooding and other extreme weather events, disaster experts say.
Staff reductions, budget cuts and other changes made by the administration since January have already created holes at the National Weather Service, which forecasts and warns of dangerous weather.
Mr. Trump’s budget proposal for the next fiscal year would close 10 laboratories run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that research the ways a warming planet is changing weather, among other things. That work is essential to more accurately predicting life-threatening hazards. Among the shuttered labs would be one in Miami that sends teams of “hurricane hunters” to fly into storms to collect critical data. The proposed budget would also make major cuts to a federal program that uses river gauges to predict floods.
The president is also envisioning a dramatically scaled-down Federal Emergency Management Agency that would shift the costs of disaster response and recovery from the federal government to the states. The administration has already revoked $3.6 billion in grants from FEMA to hundreds of communities around the country, which were to be used to help these areas protect against hurricanes, wildfires and other catastrophes. About 10 percent of the agency’s staff members have left since January, including senior leaders with decades of experience, and another 20 percent are expected to be gone by the end of this year.
The familiar excuse is that we must destroy FEMA and the National Weather Service in order to save them:
The White House and agency leaders say they are making much-needed changes to bloated bureaucracies that no longer serve the American public well.
FEMA, for one, “has been slow to respond at the federal level. It’s even been slower to get the resources to Americans in crisis,” Kristi Noem, the homeland security secretary, said last week at a meeting convened by the president to recommend changes to the agency. “That is why this entire agency needs to be eliminated as it exists today and remade into a responsive agency. We owe it to all the American people to deliver the most efficient and the most effective disaster response.”
FEMA, of course, has been very effective when led by competent people under Democratic presidents. Part of what’s going on here is that Trump just flatly lied about the FEMA response to the 2024 flooding in North Carolina, and was able to get some traction for these lies because of “teach the controversy” media conventions. He now seems to have convinced himself of his own bullshit, so that the dismal performance of an inept nihilist like Noem and the currently-on-a-milk-carton head of FEMA is actually about the agency when it’s about the Republican Party. And needless to say even if the critiques were accurate the indiscriminate removal of funds would not improve its performance. And this is happening when disasters are going to get more severe and more frequent:
The federal government’s retrenchment arrives at a time when climate change is making extreme weather more frequent and severe. Last year, the United States experienced 27 disasters that cost more than $1 billion each.
“The Trump administration is leaving communities naked, without the necessary tools that could help them assess risks or reduce those risks,” said Alice C. Hill, who worked on climate resilience and security issues for the National Security Council during the Obama administration and who is now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
And while the Weather Service developed an accurate forecast, DOGE cuts made it more difficult to communicate emergency warnings effectively:
For months, experts have warned that cuts to the National Weather Service, part of NOAA, could endanger local communities. Those fears have grown since the deadly flash floods in Central Texas earlier this month.
By all accounts, the Weather Service issued the appropriate warnings for the region that was inundated by the Guadalupe River on July 4.
But the agency had to move employees from other offices to temporarily staff the San Antonio office that handled the flood warnings, and the office lacked a warning coordination meteorologist, whose job it is to communicate with local emergency managers to plan for floods, including when and how to warn residents and help them evacuate. The office’s warning coordination meteorologist had left on April 30, after taking the early retirement package the Trump administration has offered to reduce the number of federal employees.
This is what Grover Norquist government looks like, and Trump was finally able to execute large parts of it after a campaign in which it was fairly common for the media to proclaim him as some kind of economic populist.
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Meet the Met: jeverett15's review of All the Beauty in the World: The Metropolitan Museum of Art and
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“I once thought opportunities were ever arising, but now, older, I realize how thinly the door to de
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I'm A Horror Fanatic, And I Still Think That 1974's The Texas Chain Saw Massacre Has The Greatest En
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Seinfeld, Season Six, Episode Eleven, “The Switch”
Jerry dates a woman who doesn’t laugh at his jokes; he discovers her roommate does, and enlists George in a scheme to switch girlfriends. Elaine lends out her boss’s tennis racket, only to struggle to get it back. George schemes to figure out if his girlfriend is bulimic, and in the process, learns Kramer’s first name.
Written by: Bruce Kirschbaum and Sam Kass
Directed by: Andy Ackerman
Man, the title plot here has some layers. A distinct advantage of Seinfeld burning through plot points so fast is that it can end up exploring multiple interesting ideas; this is secondary, obviously, to it stuffing an episode with so many funny ideas, but still. Firstly, it’s very funny that Jerry doesn’t want to date someone who won’t laugh at his jokes; a few episodes back, I pondered how Jerry assumes a dentist will nitpick how you brush your teeth because he projects his own nitpicking tendencies on them, and this feels like a payoff of that – he’s always a comedian, wherever he goes. The really funny thing about Jerry – and this even comes up explicitly in the episode – is that he’s a shallow asshole, but he’s completely aware of this and at peace with it. The closest character to him on television is Bender, and Bender lacks Jerry’s obsessive introspection.
This then moves onto the eponymous switch, a fantastic concept for a Seinfeld episode and masterfully executed. The whole show is people attempting these little social maneuvers and seeing them blow up in their faces, and this has the advantage of a problem simple to express and complex to execute; I love that it’s not really something with a simple solution, like Elaine’s problem that could have been resolved one way or the other by a simple explanation. I wouldn’t quite call Jerry’s problem sympathetic, but there is a clear logic running along here. George’s solution is incredibly funny because, while risky, it does make a lot of sense that they’d think this is how it would play out, and the payoff that the whole set of dominos fails to fall from the first drop is so fucking funny.
This is a rare case where the story climaxes not in a farce – again, Elaine’s plot pulls this off alongside Kramer’s – but in Jerry giving something like a Winger speech. Beloved commentor RavenWilder has remarked that Seinfeld episodes can sometimes just end without showing all the consequences for something – again, this episode does that! – and this takes that even further, where it’s almost an anti-climax that’s made to work through sheer dedication to verbiage. And it’s funny partly because this pulls Jerry’s analytical side and self-awareness into somewhere almost surreal, where he sees engaging in a menage menaige threeway not as a physical act of affection, nor even as a way to get his rocks off, but as a violation of his identity, as if one simply cannot have sex with two people at the same time without also doing all that other stuff.
TOPICS O’ THE WEEK
- “Oh, George, you’re becoming one of the glitteratti.” / “What’s that?” / “You know, people who glitter.”
- I love it when George is obsessed with something and ends up riffing on it hard, especially when he’s trying to convey how little he cares about something needling at him. He keeps hitting on one concept like he’s trying to beat the listener into believing him. It’s also great that his whole objection to his girlfriend’s possible bulimia is that he’s paying for a meal that is apparently being wasted.
- This also has the iconic reveal of Kramer’s first name. I deeply love that he is apparently oblivious to the others making fun of him for it; his shame about it was entirely disconnected to how strange it is.
- My favourite acting moment from Jason Alexander this episode is his initial sincere rage that Jerry is even considering a roommate switch.
- Great one-scene character with the guy who fights Elaine for the racket.
- “ARE YOU CRAZY?! THIS IS LIKE DISCOVERING PLUTONIUM BY ACCIDENT!” / “Don’t you know what it means to become an orgy guy? It changes everything, I’d have to dress different, I’d have to act different! I’d have to grow a moustache and wear all kinds of robes and lotions! I’d have to get new beadspreads and curtains, I’d have to get carpenting and weird old lighting! Course I’d have to get new friends – I’d have to get orgy friends! No, I’m not ready for it.”
Biggest Laugh: This is a line that surely must have had the guiding hand of Jerry Seinfeld pass over it., rendering it as precise and absurd as possible.

Next Week: “The Label Maker”
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‘I Was Basically Having Panic Attacks’: Emily Deschanel Talks About How Bad Things Got During Bones’
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Superman Proves The Hero The DC Universe Needed, Gets The Franchise Off To A Huge Start At The Weeke
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How Is Kelly Clarkson Feeling About Her Career As Rumors Swirl Around Her Talk Show? A Source Speaks
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More on election fraud claims in Pennsylvania
After looking at Walter Mebane’s paper about potential election fraud in Pennsylvania and being unable to figure out exactly what he was arguing, I asked Andrew Gelman to take a look at it. It turned out somebody else had asked him to do so earlier, and he blogged about this morning:
Pointing to this new article by Walter Mebane, eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania, Stefan Gramatovici writes:
I think you might find it interesting. I think their claims are wrong, but this is not my area of expertise, and I am having difficulty fully following the paper due to the lack of details in the models they are fitting.
They specify some precinct level model for turnout and vote share, fit the data and find some sort of pattern in the residuals. Then they add some variables for fraud, and that “The statewide total across precincts of eforensics-fraudulent votes, 225440.2 [207757.1, 252978.1], exceeds the statewide gap of 120266 votes between Trump and Harris.” So now we even have rather tight “fraud vote” CIs.
The key issue I have with the paper is that these “fraudulent” votes not explained by the original precinct model are probably due to other factors. On page 8, the author says: ” there is a signal that likely the incremental stolen votes at least in part come from malevolent distortions in Philadelphia and Huntingdon, but generally–including in these two counties–the incremental stolen votes are unknown admixtures of malevolent distortions and electors’ strategic behaviors.”. I am not a political scientist, but I could name several likely “strategic behaviors” around the 2024 election, especially in the Philadelphia area. I see no method suggested by the author to distinguish between patterns due to model misspecification and patterns due to fraud.
I took a look at the linked paper and I can’t understand what’s going on here at all. I also looked at the earlier paper by Mebane et al. describing their “eforensics” method, and I still can’t figure out what they’re trying to do. Mebane is a respected quantitative political scientist, which can be taken as evidence that we should try to read these papers more seriously; conversely, without his name attached to them I don’t think we’d be reading them at all.
The bottom line here for me at least is that I think claims about serious fraud in the US electoral system face a very high evidentiary barrier for good reasons, and a statistical analysis that is too confusing for someone like Gelman to understand is failing to meet that standard basically by definition.
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